Australia housing bubble

[MITCHAY]

My settlement date is 4th of August. I've been looking forward to this moment for a long time. 3 weeks to go!

[mcflux]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Definately everyone scenario is different. We seem to move every two years so buying for us just doesnt make sense.

So we will continue to save until we know where the heck we will end up.

There are certainly days I am glad I am renting, dont have the time for house maintenance etc. But there is always that niggle in the back of my mind about it being "ours".

I reckon you're on the right track with renting where you live if you're moving every 2 years. Plus with renting - unless it's a bronx slum - you typically get to live in a house that's a level above what you could afford to actually mortgage (from a 1st home buyer perspective).

That niggle - I wonder if the same niggle applies to people who lease/take a loan out on cars?

I don't know how people - especially families - in the cities manage with the sky-high mortgages (or rent), amongst all the other costs associated with living/working in the city. I'm in no way suggesting they have a choice, but the amount of energy/effort/expense it must take to live & work there must be insane.

[GASWAGON]

O.k don't mean to scare everybody but tonight on ABC at 8.30pm 4 Corners are doing a show about this very subject.

Can't wait......I think its going to be pretty shocking.

Prices have been rising for near on 15 years now.....Surely its gotta slow down soon its just getting out of control now and the Gen Y's will never be able to save for a deposit the way it's going???

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stori...17/4719901.htm

[Franco Cozzo]

If I didnt buy 13 different cars in the last 7 years I'd probably be able to afford a house.

But cars ftw

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by CoolBFWagon

O.k don't mean to scare everybody but tonight on ABC at 8.30pm 4 Corners are doing a show about this very subject.

Can't wait......I think its going to be pretty shocking.

Prices have been rising for near on 15 years now.....Surely its gotta slow down soon its just getting out of control now and the Gen Y's will never be able to save for a deposit the way it's going???

http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stori...17/4719901.htm

I've been waiting for the crash for 8 years and nada. What was underestimated was the governments willingness to throw cheap money at people and bending their own rules (hello FIRB! anybody home?). They will keep the ponzi going for as long as they can.

[Franco Cozzo]

Though price of dog box rental apartments is crazy in Melbourne.

One of my colleagues is paying $500/week rent for a tiny apartment in Melbourne.

[galaxy xr8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Though price of dog box rental apartments is crazy in Melbourne.

One of my colleagues is paying $500/week rent for a tiny apartment in Melbourne.

Is that inner city/CBD though ?.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by galaxy xr8

Is that inner city/CBD though ?.

Its inner eastern suburbs but not CBD

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Though price of dog box rental apartments is crazy in Melbourne.

One of my colleagues is paying $500/week rent for a tiny apartment in Melbourne.

Or could live in Melton for $200 pw for same accommodation. But smashed avos have to be near the action

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

If I didnt buy 13 different cars in the last 7 years I'd probably be able to afford a house.

But cars ftw

Cars can't be costing you that much surely? Are there any other areas of expense you can cut back on? Entertainment... ?

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Or could live in Melton for $200 pw for same accommodation. But smashed avos have to be near the action




Cars can't be costing you that much surely? Are there any other areas of expense you can cut back on? Entertainment... ?

Former business partner is paying $250/week off the books for some hovel 60km out of Melbourne on the side of our main road in and out of town where the owner of the house still has usage on the house and shed and uses it to work on his trucks and operate his business out of

In Melton your house gets broken into every 5 minutes for the priviledge.

Though my colleague doesn't have a car either so he relies on public transport.

I'm not too fussed about owning a house, not really a priority for me so I don't really care what they cost.

Cars, I've spent around $120K on or there abouts in the last 7 or so years.

If I could do it again, I'd have stuck with the Fiesta and I'd be driving an R35 GTR or a Gallardo by now

[mike_nofx]

I think with the Rent Vs Buy debate people need to look longer term.

Renters will say "You pay $800 per week mortgage while I can live in the same house for $550 per week rent", well yes thats true for today. But what will rent prices be in 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

"The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour"

For any long term renters, what were you paying for rent 20 years ago? What was the average weekly mortgage repayment?

Also, all those waiting for a bubble burst are dreaming. Prices of desirable locations (don't link me to some s#%&hole in the middle of nowhere that dropped massively) will never 'burst'. The likely scenario is house prices will stall, or at best drop by 10% (after they have already doubled or tripled). If you think those $2m Sydney houses will "burst" down to $750k, sorry, you can dream on.

[FTE217]

Not just what the rent maybe in the future but living expense's as well.
I know its a viscous circle but I'd sooner have equity than none at all !

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by mike_nofx

I think with the Rent Vs Buy debate people need to look longer term.

The only reasons to own your own home outright versus renting (apart from having equity to borrow against and something to leave your kids).... Is one day;

1. You may be long term unemployed and cannot afford rent.

2. Unable to work through injury / health, and on a disability pension and cannot afford the rent.

3. The day you retire... You may only have the government pension to live on, and it won't be enough to cover both future high rent and expenses.

[kazawaki]

Pretty simple maths purchased house 2001 paid $170,000 sixteen years later $700,000 bank valuation.Only over priced real estate will devalue and nope a good property will never burst.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

The only reasons to own your own home outright versus renting (apart from having equity to borrow against and something to leave your kids).... Is one day;

1. You may be long term unemployed and cannot afford rent.

2. Unable to work through injury / health, and on a disability pension and cannot afford the rent.

3. The day you retire... You may only have the government pension to live on, and it won't be enough to cover both future high rent and expenses.

Yeah, not to mention that the renters are all down the pub everyday, having a dozen pints, occasionally checking the keno board and inserting the dollar coins from the change from the smoke machine in the pokies, all while waiting for their drug dealer to show so they can have a couple of billys before bingo starts...

I think that's all the stereo types covered ....right

I love how all the examples given for the renter are extreme worst case scenarios, long term unemployment, sickness, disability like those things don't happen to people who have mortgages unpaid off because they've been accessing equity maaaaaate for the entire 30yrs of the initial loan, yet when you discuss the possible worst case scenarios of owning its, that only happens in **** holes in the middle of nowhere etc. etc. etc.

[Maka]

Informative but maybe scary story on interest rates & housing stress in Australia -

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-0...74?pfmredir=sm

cheers, Maka

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by Maka

Informative but maybe scary story on interest rates & housing stress in Australia -

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-0...74?pfmredir=sm

cheers, Maka

I don't think the RBA have the balls to raise rates even though they say the Oz economy is getting better like they say the U.S is also improving 10 years after the GFC.

U.S interest rates were basically 0.00% for near on 8-9 full years to try an spur on borrowing again but it did'nt work.

As your article shows even a .5% here in Oz up from 1.5% will have an impact.

I think wages need to rise.

[b0son]

Wages cant rise. Company profits are trending down.

You're dead right, with our ridiculous property prices, even a modest rate rise would nuke the property market. And with so much spending fuelled by housing equity, the government just cant risk it.

Originally Posted by b0son

And with so much spending fuelled by housing equity, the government just cant risk it.

Why not? A large portion of the population has been locked out of being able to buy a house at all. That seems to be ok though, right? Protect the 'haves' at the expense of the 'have-nots'? House prices are increasing faster than people can earn acquire the difference in deposit over the same time period.

Meanwhile the government keeps smoothing the waters whenever they start to get turbulent. And while you acknowledge that the "government can't risk it", those with at-risk mortgages keep rubbing non-home-owners' noses in it, saying that they just need to work harder, stop buying new phones and eating avocados for breakfast.

Mind you... if pigs fly and the property market does actually explode and send people bankrupt... I'd be willing to bet that those same people with mortgages, the ones doing the nose rubbing, will be the first to complain about how the government needs to protect them from financial ruin. That they deserve financial breaks and grants to help them in their time of need.

[MITCHAY]

Get busy working with what the reality is or keep hoping for what you want it to be.

I'm a firm believer that houses shouldn't be an investment but it is what it is. The only merit is if it increases the stock.

I put down almost 25% deposit so if it crashes that hard then the whole economy will be ****ed anyway in my opinion.

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I'm a firm believer that houses shouldn't be an investment but it is what it is.

Same here, I don't think it should be permitted to treat housing as an investment.

It used to be that you'd buy a house so that you had somewhere to live when you retired to enjoy the last years of your life. My preservation age is 60 and my pension age 67, assuming the government don't change either one before I get there.

There's a whole lot of people not even making it to that age, so you're pretty much working your guts out and making do with the bare minimum in the best years of your life with the hope of one day paying off your own house.
If you make it that far, you get to live in it debt-free for a few years until you die. Doesn't that sound wonderful?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by leesa

Why not?

If house prices go into free-fall, do you think banks will lend money at low rates for a depreciating asset? Do you think people with a rapidly worsening equity position will be inclined to spend money freely in the economy? Do you think the young people licking their lips at the prospect of lower house prices will even have jobs if the economy grinds to a halt?

[b0son]

Originally Posted by leesa

Same here, I don't think it should be permitted to treat housing as an investment.

I don't think housing as an investment is the problem, I think housing propped up by the taxation system is the problem. CGT is overly generous. Negative gearing is overly generous. Fix those, and then it becomes an investment again, one with actual risk, unlike now where its a sure thing which as a result is self-fueling.

[xax2]

[QUOTE=leesa;5992334]Same here, I don't think it should be permitted to treat housing as an investment.

So, no one should own an investment property????? Where are all the people that want to (or have to) rent going to live?....the government is going to be able to supply house for all of them.

Since the end of the mining boom, the Australian economy, particularly on the East coast has been propped up by a construction boom, much of it townhouses & apartments. Many of these townhouses & apartments have been purchased by 'mum & dad' investors...those rotten people trying to get ahead in life...without all this building, our economy would be going backwards because we don't manufacture as much here any more. Without investors to buy much of that construction, it probably wouldn't get built.

Although none of us want to see spiralling house prices, which leads to unaffordability for the next generation, believe me, you don't want to see a price crash either....that happened in the early 1990's and people stopped spending on all sorts of things. Businesses went backwards and stopped employing and it became a vicious cycle.
Steady growth is what we need. If you want to buy a house, find an area where you can afford. There are country towns within an hour of most capital cities with homes for less than $200,000 (that's repayments of less than $200pw). Otherwise rent where you want.

[Franco Cozzo]

Theres economic troubles abound already, people are tightening up on spending spondoolies.

I've noticed the auto repair sector are hardly buying parts from their suppliers, all the workshops in the SE Suburbs of Melbourne I sell to are all complaining about it being slow and the last 6 months being crap.

October, November, December and January are usually peak periods in my game, last year/this year it was the worst its ever been, people driving around with problems instead of fixing their cars and everyone else I spoke to said similar.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by xax2

There are country towns within an hour of most capital cities with homes for less than $200,000 (that's repayments of less than $200pw). Otherwise rent where you want.

That gets you a block of land out here barely, forget the house and we're an hour out of Melbourne.

I think if I'm going to buy something the plan is country block, shed + nice caravan and tow rig

Can chase work interstate if I want and live out of the van.

[xax2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

That gets you a block of land out here barely, forget the house and we're an hour out of Melbourne.

I'm in Melbourne as well and there are a number of towns within an hour where you can still buy a house for under $200,000 today....Seymour, Yea and others.
The only Capital I'm not sure about is Sydney (I did say 'most' capitals) but I'm sure someone will come up with something if they look hard enough.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by xax2

I'm in Melbourne as well and there are a number of towns within an hour where you can still buy a house for under $200,000 today....Seymour, Yea and others.
The only Capital I'm not sure about is Sydney (I did say 'most' capitals) but I'm sure someone will come up with something if they look hard enough.

Seymour within an hour of Melbourne? Its 116km out.

Half the problem is business wants to centralise itself around CBD locations, the city is where the work is there is no opportunities out regional unless you work at Maccas or make methamphetamines for bikies.

If there was government incentives for business to relocate regional, areas with good public transport access - Bendigo for example has a fast rail line and a very good service between Bendigo-Melbourne we probably wouldn't need everyone going in and out of Melbourne every day.

[xax2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Seymour within an hour of Melbourne? Its 116km out.

Half the problem is business wants to centralise itself around CBD locations, the city is where the work is there is no opportunities out regional unless you work at Maccas or make methamphetamines for bikies.

If there was government incentives for business to relocate regional, areas with good public transport access - Bendigo for example has a fast rail line and a very good service between Bendigo-Melbourne we probably wouldn't need everyone going in and out of Melbourne every day.

You can get to Seymour in around an hour via freeway as it is 100/110kph almost the entire way. It also on one of the main country train lines. It's also less than 40mins from the northern suburbs where much of Melbourne's industry is (or what's left of it). A lot of people complain about not being able to buy close to the city, and yet many of them don't actually work there. There's a great lifestyle in regional areas if you want it.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by xax2

You can get to Seymour in around an hour via freeway as it is 100/110kph almost the entire way. It also on one of the main country train lines. It's also less than 40mins from the northern suburbs where much of Melbourne's industry is (or what's left of it). A lot of people complain about not being able to buy close to the city, and yet many of them don't actually work there. There's a great lifestyle in regional areas if you want it.

Yeah until you hit traffic on the freeway closer to Melbourne and it grinds to a halt.

It takes me 50 minutes on a good run to get to Melbourne or 1 hour 20 on the way out and I'm about 60km out of the city and most of my trip is over 110km/h because I speed everywhere