Petrol Price crisis......

[buggerlugs]

On our xmas travels, Diesel at Bacchus Marsh $1.27.9 plt, Eastern side of Ballarat $1.37.9plt, western side of Ballarar $1.43.9plt All on the same day !!! And yesterday Temora NSW $1.31.9plt then up the road at West Wyong $1.44.9plt !!!

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by superroo

Peak oil theory isn't a failed theory, it's just as time (technology) has rolled on and prices have increased the previous "unviable" oil fields are now worth drilling, eg Bakken Shales in Dakota.
So the theoretical peak keeps moving.

and that's exactly why the price is dropping now. The previous high price of crude made shale oil more economically viable so the Yanks brought more on line. The OPEC countries cracked the ***** that the Americans were importing less, so they kept their production high and hence the price drops as there is an excess of supply.

At some point soon the price of crude will drop below the point that the shale oil is viable, and as soon as they stop producing it, the OPEC guys will be laughing all the way to the bank as we hit $2 a litre.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by simon varley

and that's exactly why the price is dropping now. The previous high price of crude made shale oil more economically viable so the Yanks brought more on line. The OPEC countries cracked the ***** that the Americans were importing less, so they kept their production high and hence the price drops as there is an excess of supply.

At some point soon the price of crude will drop below the point that the shale oil is viable, and as soon as they stop producing it, the OPEC guys will be laughing all the way to the bank as we hit $2 a litre.

That is part of the story. The other part is to hurt the Russian economy as crude oil is one of their main exports.

[sexyxe]

Originally Posted by simon varley

and that's exactly why the price is dropping now. The previous high price of crude made shale oil more economically viable so the Yanks brought more on line. The OPEC countries cracked the ***** that the Americans were importing less, so they kept their production high and hence the price drops as there is an excess of supply.

At some point soon the price of crude will drop below the point that the shale oil is viable, and as soon as they stop producing it, the OPEC guys will be laughing all the way to the bank as we hit $2 a litre.

But won't that then repeat this cycle? They stop producing shale oil until it is economically viable, once fuel prices increase enough, they then start pulling more of it up, decreasing the price of oil again... Rinse and repeat?

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by sexyxe

But won't that then repeat this cycle? They stop producing shale oil until it is economically viable, once fuel prices increase enough, they then start pulling more of it up, decreasing the price of oil again... Rinse and repeat?

Theres alot of investors in the American shale business that are hurting big time at the moment. You only have to look at some of the companies on the Australian Market whos shares have more than halved. The american shale business wasnt even making money when oil was at $100 a barrel (they were being funded by alot of debt), thus imagine how good they are going now. In addition, the payoffs for shale wells comes short and sweet ( these wells are productive at start, but die rather quickly compared to your tradional oil well). Theres a good chance that over 75% plus, of US production is losing money at the moment, and once you shutdown a shale oil well, its a huge cost to get it running again. Any sane investor wont be returning to this situation for a long time. Smart investors out there would be buying 44 gallon drums, and throwing a bit of petrol in there each week. Come latevthis year, or early next year, petrol will be staying above $1.60 a litre.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by superroo

Peak oil theory isn't a failed theory, it's just as time (technology) has rolled on and prices have increased the previous "unviable" oil fields are now worth drilling, eg Bakken Shales in Dakota.
So the theoretical peak keeps moving.

So you agree with me

BTW peak oil is when consumption rate is greater than the maximum extraction rate. so far all predictions have proved wrong.

[sexyxe]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Theres alot of investors in the American shale business that are hurting big time at the moment. You only have to look at some of the companies on the Australian Market whos shares have more than halved. The american shale business wasnt even making money when oil was at $100 a barrel (they were being funded by alot of debt), thus imagine how good they are going now. In addition, the payoffs for shale wells comes short and sweet ( these wells are productive at start, but die rather quickly compared to your tradional oil well). Theres a good chance that over 75% plus, of US production is losing money at the moment, and once you shutdown a shale oil well, its a huge cost to get it running again. Any sane investor wont be returning to this situation for a long time. Smart investors out there would be buying 44 gallon drums, and throwing a bit of petrol in there each week. Come latevthis year, or early next year, petrol will be staying above $1.60 a litre.

I see. Guess we will have to wait and see what happens then. Fuel in Darwin is 45% more expensive then Vic anyway. So we are screwed.

Zipping - peak oil can't be a false prophecy. If we keep using it, it certainly doesn't compose at the rate we are using it. It may just take a bit longer to get to that point though. Making an accurate prediction as to when that is would be a hell of a trick though.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by zipping

So you agree with me

BTW peak oil is when consumption rate is greater than the maximum extraction rate. so far all predictions have proved wrong.

I dont think it means when consumption is greater than max. extraction rate. If you look at it logically, how can you ever consume more of something than you have? Peak oil has more to do with when the maximum production has been reached. If you only count normal (crude) oil production (drill a hole in ground, and wait for oil to pop up), then most experts agree that peak oil happened in about 2005. Oil production has increased since then, but its happened due to shale oils (which alot cant be used in transport fuels), oil sands, biofuels etc etc.

[Syndrome]

Last night crude oil dropped below $46 per barrel.

[Trump]

Could there be some new energy tech sitting behind the scenes fuelling this rather rapid price drop for the black stuff?

[mik]

i would not be too worried about oil or fuel too much, if and when it becomes scarce enough for the price to become unpalatable for motorists , it will more than likely happen gradually and people will ween off expensive to fuel vehicles and go to hybrids or electric,

and in the mean time some one will come up with a another viable fuel, the internal combustion engine is very versatile , it will run on many different fuels..

[Syndrome]

Crude oil now trading at under $45 per barrel.

What crisis?

[Syndrome]

Just filled the FG XR6 for $78. Six months ago it was costing about $30 bucks more.

[STINKY NINJA]

Im loving these cheap fuel prices,costing me about 1.30 for 98,LOVE IT!
1.10 for regular in perth.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

Last night crude oil dropped below $46 per barrel.

Russia's leaders will love this. NOT !

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by mik

i would not be too worried about oil or fuel too much, if and when it becomes scarce enough for the price to become unpalatable for motorists , it will more than likely happen gradually and people will ween off expensive to fuel vehicles and go to hybrids or electric,

and in the mean time some one will come up with a another viable fuel, the internal combustion engine is very versatile , it will run on many different fuels..

Yes it will run on LPG which is cheap as chips at the moment and it burns much cleaner than petrol or diesel....All you need is the latest liquid injection system fitted to your car and off you go!

[BlackZH]

While I'm enjoying the cheap petrol I do have concerns for the impact the low prices of oil may yet have. But not much I can do. 91 is like $1.02 here its nice watching the litres keel up with $ on the bowser

[steve.zissou]

but remember that the big cost with shale oil is the set up. Once its online they wont turn it off no matter how much the price drops. This is why the US oil output hit its highest rate ever recently even with prices through the floor.

There are a stack of reasons why oil price is going through the floor but the big question is when it will stop and how long it will stay there and no one can predict that. But i will say that demand is down and supply is up. The fact that demand is down is an indicator all is not economically sound in the world (some may question the accuracy of certain govt statistics we are seeing from around the world - the markets tend to be a bit more honest)

my concern is E85. As oil drops and food prices increase i fear i might have to go back to 98 (nooooooooooo). United are being jerks selling it for $1.00 when unleaded is only 109. At least caltex eflex is 90c and i get a little more out of a tank for that also (seeing its e75 atm)

[Burnout]

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

Russia's leaders will love this. NOT !

They will care for future cash flow, however most if not all of Vlad's mates got their loot out of Russia just before sanctions kicked in over the Ukraine business.

[Syndrome]

Down to under $45 per barrel.

[new2ford]

This is encouraging (not):

http://www.smh.com.au/national/car-r...30-132bv3.html

Car owners could be forced to pay more for vehicle registration as a direct result of Australia's rapidly vanishing capacity to refine crude oil.

The warning, made in a state government submission to a Senate inquiry into the nation's fuel security, is that the dwindling output from local refineries will mean that bitumen for road making, a by-product of oil refining, will have to be 100 per cent imported.

That will increase the cost of building roads but likely be recouped through higher rego costs, according to the Queensland government's submission to the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Committee.

The committee established the inquiry, Australia's transport energy resilience and sustainability, after complaints from several bodies, including the NRMA and the Australian Automobile Association, that the country was vulnerable to fuel supply shocks.

Australia now imports 91 per cent of its petrol and diesel – up from 60 per cent in 2000. The Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics calculates that Australia has just 12 days of diesel stock.

With the closure of Caltex's Kurnell refinery and Shell's Clyde refinery in Sydney, there is no oil refining any more in NSW.

Shell's Geelong refinery, now owned by Viva Energy, still supplies 871 petrol stations in Victoria but there are doubts about long term refining. Two refineries are due to close in Queensland, including BP's facility in Brisbane.

Just one huge oil refinery in Singapore supplies half of Australia's unleaded petrol and Fairfax Media revealed in November that al-Qaeda had urged jihadists to attack oil tankers that use the shipping supply routes that transport 70 per cent of the nation's petrol.

In their submissions to the inquiry, the Australian petrol companies said there is little threat to the fuel supply and rebuilding refining capacity to a point where the country was insulated from a significant supply shock would cost $6.8 billion.

Money, they say, that would have to come directly from government, or from consumers in higher petrol prices.

Caltex said: "Australia does not have a fuel security problem. Increasing stocks to 90 days of net imports would make very little difference to fuel security.

"The solution to extreme scenarios is having adequate flows of oil, not stocks.

"There is a high cost (an estimated $6.8 billion) to invest in strategic reserve stocks of fuel to protect against the long run risk of sudden severe disruption to global trade. This cost would need to be met by either increased fuel prices or the diversion of public funds."

In its submission, the NRMA said countries like the United Kingdom and Japan were actively shoring up fuel security but Australia was going in the opposite direction.

"The UK is having a conversation about how to maintain security when the market can no longer deliver. The Australian Government has not yet initiated this conversation with the Australian public," it said.

"We suggest that declining domestic refining capacity is not a 'longer term' issue, but an issue requiring immediate response. By mid next year, Australia will have lost 50 per cent of our refining capacity since 2003 … and all in the absence of any strategic assessment of the importance of a refining capacity to Australia."

[lisaishername]

Australia is already the most expensive place in the world to live because we have to import everything else, even our income. What would the Aust economy be if it wasn't for the Tourism industry? It would be nothing.

Peak oil is not a myth infact it is a weapon of war. Check out the history of the 1973 oil crisis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

In 1973, the Shah of Iran told the New York Times, "Of course [the world price of oil] is going to rise....Certainly! And how...; You [Western nations] increased the price of wheat you sell us by 300%, and the same for sugar and cement...; You buy our crude oil and sell it back to us, refined as petrochemicals, at a hundred times the price you've paid to us...; It's only fair that, from now on, you should pay more for oil. Let's say ten times more."

More proof that buying Gold and preparing for the worst is the best thing I can be doing right now.

We are at war gentlemen. Don't forget that all another country needs to do to wipe us out is increase the price of something until we are buying everyday items with debt. Oh wait. That already happened.

I see a future where Australia's population is living like Africans on food rations. We are at the mercy of a Global economy and if the US or China go to war (with nukes) we are finished as who knows what kind of insane economic conditions our economy could stay afloat in. As it is right now we are barely staying afloat on the back of a global economy that is doing GOOD. Nevermind one that has collapsed entirely.

Btw the safest method of storing petrol is in individual Jerry cans. If you get a puncture in one you only lose 20 litres instead of 50-150 litres and they are easy to move around in the event of having to de-*** the area. Don't bother with ex-army jerry cans as they have seen too much use. Only buy the brand new ones, which are pretty expensive but worth every penny.

[baboon]

So what will you be doing lisaishername and do you have a time frame until things get well again? 10years/100years/1000years/10000years?

[lisaishername]

Originally Posted by baboon

So what will you be doing lisaishername and do you have a time frame until things get well again? 10years/100years/1000years/10000years?

Feeding my family (1 brother, 1 sister, 1 niece, 1 mum n 1 dad.) Farming. Defending whatever I have.

A timeframe for things getting better is difficult to judge and I'm not a cult leader throwing out dates to die by. However if I were to guess it would be about 15-30 years before Australia came back to its current glory. If we get a decent leader it will be shorter. But you can forget about welfare or free dental or government housing. It would be tent cities and peer to peer wifi and solar powered laptops and IF people are smart enough they will stop anyone who tries to put them behind gated fences "for their own good" as governments have proven themselves time and time again that they don't care who you are all you look like to them is free labour.

On the bright side we might see a lot of rich people build their mansions here. and we are seeing that now. They could end up using their power and influence to make this country great once more.

If you want fuel then I suggest that you modify your vehicle to run high purity Ethanol as you can make that from potatoes, corn, don't expect to get much though.

[new2ford]

Excuse me while I go and look for my Prozac

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by lisaishername

Peak oil is not a myth infact it is a weapon of war. ....................

snip

...............
We are at war gentlemen. Don't forget that all another country needs to do to wipe us out is increase the price of something until we are buying everyday items with debt. ..............

snip

...........I see a future where Australia's population is living like Africans on food rations. We are at the mercy of a Global economy and if the US or China go to war (with nukes) we are finished as who knows what kind of insane economic conditions our economy could stay afloat in

You signed up to the wrong forum!

With your outlook on life in general you wanted this one..............

http://www.survivalistboards.com/

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

You signed up to the wrong forum!

With your outlook on life in general you wanted this one..............

http://www.survivalistboards.com/

And you'll need one of these too

[lisaishername]

Originally Posted by GasOLane

You signed up to the wrong forum!

With your outlook on life in general you wanted this one..............

http://www.survivalistboards.com/

Actually that would just make me a target.

And so would owning a gun. I don't own a gun and never will. I'm anti-guns.

I'll lay off the scary talk but the reason why I'm talking about it at all on here is so I don't have to feed any of you guys when it all goes belly-up.

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by lisaishername

Feeding my family (1 brother, 1 sister, 1 niece, 1 mum n 1 dad.) Farming. Defending whatever I have.

A timeframe for things getting better is difficult to judge and I'm not a cult leader throwing out dates to die by. However if I were to guess it would be about 15-30 years before Australia came back to its current glory. If we get a decent leader it will be shorter. But you can forget about welfare or free dental or government housing. It would be tent cities and peer to peer wifi and solar powered laptops and IF people are smart enough they will stop anyone who tries to put them behind gated fences "for their own good" as governments have proven themselves time and time again that they don't care who you are all you look like to them is free labour.

On the bright side we might see a lot of rich people build their mansions here. and we are seeing that now. They could end up using their power and influence to make this country great once more.

If you want fuel then I suggest that you modify your vehicle to run high purity Ethanol as you can make that from potatoes, corn, don't expect to get much though.

Lisaishername I just read an interesting article that opposes what most survivalists believe in on a precious metals site and it totally contradicts all that you say.....This article reckons the USD is going to end up being the only currency to invest in and the U.S.A will end up being the only surviving country/currency out of the all of the rest of them in the next global meltdown.

Dont put all your eggs in one basket!

[lisaishername]

Originally Posted by XR6WGN-LPG

Lisaishername I just read an article on a precious metals site that totally contradicts all that you say.....They reckon the USD is going to end up being the only currency to invest in and the U.S.A will end up being the only surviving country/currency out of the all of the rest of them.

Dont put all your eggs in one basket!

God I hope so. I love the USA.

Feel free to pay me in USD for my gold at some point in the future if you wish when I'm ready to sell.

Take a look at how much Gold China and Russia is buying btw.

I consider land, food and tools to be as good as gold. So I'm not putting it all in one basket by my standards.

You can dig as little or as deep as you want to on this topic but suffice it to say that I wouldn't want to base a civilization that I would govern (lets just say) on one single resource (like oil).

This is a nice 4 part series on the petrodollar:
http://ftmdaily.com/preparing-for-th...dollar-system/

I would like to see Australia go the way of Brazil in using more land for Ethanol. That will give us leaverage on the global oil market and doomsday wouldn't be much of an issue for us. We sure have the space for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5jmOwBf_qQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2aQwcdILdE
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...out-buys-world
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-imf-gold-data