Australia housing bubble

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Tide showing signs of turning in the overall grand scheme of things....

image

Can confirm that tas is in negative growth...starting to get hanger ons looking for work....no you're not worth a thousand buck a day is my response.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by zilo

Can confirm that tas is in negative growth...starting to get hanger ons looking for work....no you're not worth a thousand buck a day is my response.

While I want no ill for anyone in particular I do hope the housing market cools off a bit more. I noticed ~10% drop in the 800+ range but for my mind Tassie houses generally are still inflated. What makes it hard here is limited supply and trades to build in a hurry.

[Citroënbender]

I felt some of the last few years’ huge leap in Tasmanian real estate prices was due to people buying with what I call “tourist eyes”, not really seeing or understanding the base dynamics of its population or seeing the large gaps in infrastructure/services (like the Launceston hospital heliport decommissioning, which is a big and festering issue). That naïve market is bound to correct.

Similarly I expect a fall in Adelaide prices, as there’s not much reason most of it should be dearer than a place like Wagga. A lot of civic amenity that people cite as reasons to live somewhere, they under-use; it’s a mantra of self deception.

A shout-out to Yellow Festiva, I think he darned near picked Sydney’s bottom perfectly and his comments on deposit rates are coming true as well. Not everyone in his position would have chosen to share their insights so freely but I for one have appreciated seeing how well focused they were.

[fordomatic]

Yellow has been sharing his wisdom for years, not just on the housing market either, he's a legend.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Polyal

While I want no ill for anyone in particular I do hope the housing market cools off a bit more. I noticed ~10% drop in the 800+ range but for my mind Tassie houses generally are still inflated. What makes it hard here is limited supply and trades to build in a hurry.

Tassie houses....yellow tongue floor, pine frame, colourbond clad ,plaster walls.
aluminium windows.

Most look like bags of dog shyte.

Basically a shed lined and insulated.

And they can't build them quick enough at 2000 bucks a sq metre....and more.

[Citroënbender]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-...ites/102460298

I’m getting tired of the mantra “housing is a right” coming out of young mouths. In addition to disparaging remarks about “randoms”. Most people are decent and honest, statistics bear it out.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-...ites/102460298

I’m getting tired of the mantra “housing is a right” coming out of young mouths. In addition to disparaging remarks about “randoms”. Most people are decent and honest, statistics bear it out.

Absolutely, you want it, you have to work for it, just like all of us have had to.No one said it was ever going to be easy.It seems a lot want it handed to them on a platter.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-...ites/102460298

I’m getting tired of the mantra “housing is a right” coming out of young mouths. In addition to disparaging remarks about “randoms”. Most people are decent and honest, statistics bear it out.

It must be the way I read the link but I got the impression, access to affordable housing is a right for renters and buyers.
On renting, I reckon it would be bad enough going through the untrustworthy process of leasing and the way real estate agents treat you these days, let alone needing to, then do a similar thing yourself in interviewing these "randoms" to share with, if in fact you are approved to do so by a landlord.


From the article.....As for buying, she said the only way that would be possible for her was with family help.

"I've heard a lot of people are moving back in with their families just to save up enough to get a deposit," she said.

"That's the situation with me really. To even get a deposit you'd have to not be renting."

Don't think I would want to be in this situation facing young renters or buyers.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

It must be the way I read the link but I got the impression, access to affordable housing is a right for renters and buyers.
On renting, I reckon it would be bad enough going through the untrustworthy process of leasing and the way real estate agents treat you these days, let alone needing to, then do a similar thing yourself in interviewing these "randoms" to share with, if in fact you are approved to do so by a landlord.


From the article.....As for buying, she said the only way that would be possible for her was with family help.

"I've heard a lot of people are moving back in with their families just to save up enough to get a deposit," she said.

"That's the situation with me really. To even get a deposit you'd have to not be renting."

Don't think I would want to be in this situation facing young renters or buyers.

It was no different for my generation, a lot moved in with their in-laws to get the deposit together.Nothing new there.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by hackney

It was no different for my generation, a lot moved in with their in-laws to get the deposit together.Nothing new there.

Not arguing, We all did that, well I didn't, lived in a converted truck.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-...ites/102460298

I’m getting tired of the mantra “housing is a right” coming out of young mouths. In addition to disparaging remarks about “randoms”. Most people are decent and honest, statistics bear it out.

From the article..........


"Her friend from Sydney, who describes himself as being on a "good income", has also had to move into a bigger share house following his rent going "through the roof".

He's spending about a third of his income on rent."

I would have thought that a 1/3rd was reasonable....so what does he do with the other 2/3rds

[prydey]

Originally Posted by hackney

It was no different for my generation, a lot moved in with their in-laws to get the deposit together.Nothing new there.

Except it was different.

Why is it so hard for some to accept that buying a house or renting, is much harder financially these days than ever before,

[Citroënbender]

I’m not suggesting it isn’t more difficult for many, but I chose to highlight a personal choice some people are making which constrains them further.

Plus the notion of what is a “right”; I absolutely believe everyone should have the right to opportunity - and it is from there, they may find their way into their own place. My personal view is that life is entirely a job of sorts, by work of all facets we sustain ourselves (cf Gen 3:19).

Again to share housing, it’s almost two-three decades’ stale experience but you weren’t subject to the agent's oversight in such a personal way - the lessee was held ultimately responsible by the letting agency.

In Sydney at least, the traffic makes many longer commutes diabolical, this is incredibly wearing. Even if you are to choose a motorbike as a way to speed that up (via lane filtering when cars stationary) the lack of bike awareness makes it genuinely dangerous.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

In addition to disparaging remarks about “randoms”.

That quote is clickbait... it isnt quoted in the article itself so there's no context attached to it. Plenty of people live in share houses with people other than their friends.

Sharing rooms is unusual for the Aus housing market. These aren't frat boys in a college dorm comedy. These are grown-*** adults in Australia. I'd bristle at that too TBH.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by prydey

Except it was different.

Why is it so hard for some to accept that buying a house or renting, is much harder financially these days than ever before,

Why is it different?
I've been through it, my kids been through it and now my grandkids are going through it, don't see any real difference.

[xkxlxm]

Last week (?) on ABC mainstream radio they introduced some bloke as the owner of 78 houses ...

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

From the article..........


"Her friend from Sydney, who describes himself as being on a "good income", has also had to move into a bigger share house following his rent going "through the roof".

He's spending about a third of his income on rent."

I would have thought that a 1/3rd was reasonable....so what does he do with the other 2/3rds

A fair bit of it would be for food, transport, training and clothing not to mention utilities on the rental.
I couldn't imagine what office workers would have to spend on just clothing alone being an outside mudder.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

Last week (?) on ABC mainstream radio they introduced some bloke as the owner of 78 houses ...

was it Joe Hockey ?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

Last week (?) on ABC mainstream radio they introduced some bloke as the owner of 78 houses ...

And presumably he's renting them out to people who need rental properties...?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

And presumably he's renting them out to people who need rental properties...?

I thank him for his service or am I in the wrong thread.

[xkxlxm]

If there were less people like that bloke buying properties for 'investment' - ie speculation - there would be more houses available to buy for people who want to buy their own home.

When Costello/Howard cut capital gains tax in half that only made it more attractive for the 'investors' - ie speculators - to buy more houses and at the same time it made it more difficult for the person who wanted to buy their one and only home to live in.

If the '78 houses' bloke built those 78 houses he has increased the number of houses available to rent, but I would imagine he has bought pre-existing houses, so he and all the others like him are making it harder for people to buy a house to live in.

I can't remember how close that Costello/Howard decision was to the next election ... it's a dog-eat-dog world.

[tbro4123]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

When you want to build and grow, you have got to pay. Wait for the QLDers to start investing in the Olympics, see what happens then.

Sorry mate, but there is no such thing as the "Olympic Games", its all a conspiracy.



It's actually the "Anna Games"!!!!


Your welcome!




Terry

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tbro4123

Sorry mate, but there is no such thing as the "Olympic Games", its all a conspiracy.

It's actually the "Anna Games"!!!!

Your welcome!


Terry

Get excited Terry! Mate of mine was on the phone to me when the announcement was made, was crying as this was the "dream come true". Fast forward 2 years, same friend now saying "You can have it..." The reality hitting home when people realise they have to pay for stuff.

And the big migration will come with a cost. Better start raising taxes....

https://au.news.yahoo.com/state-aust...021200120.html

Works out to be about $600k a house. Not bad I suppose.

[anobserver]

It is harder for each generation. Adult life is delayed, family formation is pushed back, and those that do get on the property bandwagon are more heavily indebted for longer (into their 50s and beyond) than their grandparents, generating ever more billions in fees and revenue for the banking system. It’s an everything bubble: Housing is just the most obvious indicator.

But then, the younger generations are always an easy mark to criticise: travel, phones and Bernard Salt’s avo on toast comments come to mind. So why do I say its getting harder?

Labour market
- loss of trade training opportunities (CUBBIES not withstanding)
- move to a service economy
- increasing casualization and loss of manufacturing jobs
- more contract and temp jobs

Early adult Debt load
- useless degree almost a pre req
- five figure HECS debts
- loss of the cheap car market with increasing safety features and decreasing user serviceabiliy
- What young white collar earner can afford a used ranger or hilux?

Ongoing immigration
- Each year, Government allows another few hundred thousand people in, some via immigration, some via student visas that stay on after graduation and gain permanent residency. This subsidises housing demand, and prices rise. Bankers lend out ever bigger sums and the circus goes on.

- This constant demand for ever more housing has increased our population by 10 million or so since 1995, keeps builders and unions happy, and makes some well connected very rich indeed. Existing homeowners see their valuations (and their rates) increase year by year, so provided they're in front on the mortgage (or have none at all), they're mostly happy.

Cumulative inflation
- if our money wasn't constantly being devalued, we wouldn't see people speculating in assets, trying to get ahead. People speculate in investment housing because its been pretty much a sure thing, since 2001 and capital gains tax changes.

- People speculate because our money is being devalued, and we're always told that a little inflation is a good thing. Except CPI constantly undercuts the true rate of inflation, and understates how much purchasing power is lost each year. Inflation is cumulative. And those few million underemployed in the casual labour market (aka Roy Morgan stats) won’t appreciate their costs going up in double digits each and every year.

- An economy with a sound currency should be producing gentle deflation, which means gradually increasing purchasing power. This means that saving is worthwhile, which we simply can’t have. Plus, the money supply is not easily expanded, as is needed in times of war, and it looks like we may be at that time again.

Constantly in debt throughout adulthood, with less opportunity, our money losing value, and working to pay interest to faceless bankers sounds like slavery to me. Is this what we want for our next generations?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by anobserver

It is harder for each generation. Adult life is delayed, family formation is pushed back, and those that do get on the property bandwagon are more heavily indebted for longer (into their 50s and beyond) than their grandparents, generating ever more billions in fees and revenue for the banking system. It’s an everything bubble: Housing is just the most obvious indicator.

But then, the younger generations are always an easy mark to criticise: travel, phones and Bernard Salt’s avo on toast comments come to mind. So why do I say its getting harder?

Labour market
-loss of trade training opportunities (CUBBIES not withstanding)
-move to a service economy
-increasing casualization and loss of manufacturing jobs
-more contract and temp jobs

Early adult Debt load
-useless degree almost a pre req
-five figure HECS debts
-loss of the cheap car market with increasing safety features and decreasing user serviceabiliy
-What young white collar earner can afford a used ranger or hilux?

Ongoing immigration
-Each year, Government allows another few hundred thousand people in, some via immigration, some via student visas that stay on after graduation and gain permanent residency. This subsidises housing demand, and prices rise. Bankers lend out ever bigger sums and the circus goes on.

-This constant demand for ever more housing has increased our population by 10 million or so since 1995, keeps builders and unions happy, and makes some well connected very rich indeed. Existing homeowners see their valuations (and their rates) increase year by year, so provided they're in front on the mortgage (or have none at all), they're mostly happy.

Cumulative inflation
-if our money wasn't constantly being devalued, we wouldn't see people speculating in assets, trying to get ahead. People speculate in investment housing because its been pretty much a sure thing, since 2001 and capital gains tax changes.

-People speculate because our money is being devalued, and we're always told that a little inflation is a good thing. Except CPI constantly undercuts the true rate of inflation, and understates how much purchasing power is lost each year. Inflation is cumulative. And those few million underemployed in the casual labour market (aka Roy Morgan stats) won’t appreciate their costs going up in double digits each and every year.

-An economy with a sound currency should be producing gentle deflation, which means gradually increasing purchasing power. This means that saving is worthwhile, which we simply can’t have. Plus, the money supply is not easily expanded, as is needed in times of war, and it looks like we may be at that time again.

Constantly in debt throughout adulthood, with less opportunity, our money losing value, and working to pay interest to faceless bankers sounds like slavery to me. Is this what we want for our next generations?

Too many subjective propositions there with no factual references.

[anobserver]

https://www.thatslife.com.au/

[Adamz Ghia]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Why is it different?
I've been through it, my kids been through it and now my grandkids are going through it, don't see any real difference.

That you don’t understand it is a shocking reflection of our education systems teaching of Maths. .

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

That you don’t understand it is a shocking reflection of our education systems teaching of Maths. .

My maths is good but the person who stated his remark will say I'm just a baby boomer who has had it too good.
Just because my opinion is different does not mean it is wrong, no need to put people down.

Cheers

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Itsme

My maths is good but the person who stated his remark will say I'm just a baby boomer who has had it too good.
Just because my opinion is different does not mean it is wrong, no need to put people down.

Cheers

Maybe go back and read post# 2662.

I've never said boomers, or any earlier generation, had it easy or 'too good'.

The facts don't lie though. House prices have risen much much higher than what wages have over the same period. There's a myriad of other financial differences also but they all point to the same thing.

Financially, it's more difficult now.

[zilo]

ANZ raises mortgage rates out of the RBA cycle by 60 basis points.


It's over 6% for almost any mortgage.

wow....how does anyone pay a 700k mortgage now?