Covid 19 -

[Charliewool]

Wouldn’t you think the feckin President would be quoting the lower “true” number rather than virtually doubling it?? Come on!

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So why is World meter AND Trump saying 67,000?

I'd say Romulus is trying to say if you die 'with' covid 19, rather than 'from' covid 19 then your death shouldn't be included in the stats.

It's just being pedantic in my view.

[Charliewool]

I mainly follow the 2 Countries that personally concern me...
World meter has 95 dead for Australia...
And 6 dead, where I am in Costa Rica...
Both governments, both countries medias, both countries health Depts are also stating EXACTLY the same number!.....
The same source has 69,000 for USA, and you say it’s virtually HALF???
Get ya hand off it mate!... Sick to death of some of the tripe this thread has attracted!

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'd say Romulus is trying to say if you die 'with' covid 19, rather than 'from' covid 19 then your death shouldn't be included in the stats.

It's just being pedantic in my view.

So... Why wouldn’t Trump use the “conveniently LOWER” number???

[cheap]

More information on the CoronaSafe application.

Once again, technology announced with fanfare, unrealistic adoption targets, late arrival, and with questionable benefits. Sounds like I’m describing application deployment in Queensland Health

Since the legislation governing the data protection and management are not yet law, what does that mean for the user data currently being collected?

Business owners who ban people from entry unless they have downloaded the government’s coronavirus contact tracing app will face five years in jail and a $63,000 fine under proposed laws. The government has released a draft of its legislative backing to privacy and data protections for the COVIDSafe tracing app.
It proposes to make it illegal for anyone to refuse a person without the app entry to a public place, ban them from an activity or refuse to buy or sell goods and services to them. The legislation would also make it an offence to access the data without proper authorisation and for the data to be stored anywhere outside of Australia. All offences have a maximum penalty of five years in jail, a $63,00 fine or both.

The legislation also says records of the Bluetooth “handshakes” a user’s phone makes with people they come in close contact with must be deleted after 21 days or upon request. And once the health minister and chief medical officer decide the app is no longer necessary on health grounds, all data must be erased from the server and people will be told to delete the app from their phones.

A sunset clause in the legislation says the privacy protections and offences will end 90 days after the minister determines the app is no longer needed. The legislation, which will be put to parliament when it returns next week, backs up rules already laid out in a biosecurity determination. Attorney-general Christian Porter described it as the final step in a “triple lock of privacy protections”.

“The draft bill clarifies the enforcement mechanisms for the penalties that are already in place against misuse of data from the COVIDSafe app,” he said on Monday.

“In addition to the protections provided by the biosecurity determination, this bill puts in place a clear process outlining how the government will satisfy its obligation to delete all COVIDSafe data from the national COVIDSafe data store once the pandemic is over.”

Offences under the new law would be investigated by federal police and people could complain to the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner or their state privacy regulator if they were concerned their data had been misused.
– Katina Curtis, AAP

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

I mainly follow the 2 Countries that personally concern me...
World meter has 95 dead for Australia...
And 6 dead, where I am in Costa Rica...
Both governments, both countries medias, both countries health Depts are also stating EXACTLY the same number!.....
The same source has 69,000 for USA, and you say it’s virtually HALF???
Get ya hand off it mate!... Sick to death of some of the tripe this thread has attracted!

I don't say it's virtually HALF, the data I've sourced comes direct from CDC who are reporting the numbers. I'm not interested in following world meter and other predictions of the number of deaths, including 'presumed' number of deaths.

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So... Why wouldn’t Trump use the “conveniently LOWER” number???

Why, because it would open up yet another Trump Derangement Attack.

Instead, be cautious, quote the bigger number and once the dust has settled then re-adjust.

[russellw]

Sweden is continuing to trend downward for new cases but their mortality rate remains above 33 per 100k of total population - well above Finland (4.1) and Norway (3.9) but not as bad as Italy (47.7) or Belgium (66.6). Their case rate of 220.97/100k of total population is well below the USA (358), Italy (348) and Spain (528) but above the neighbouring Finland (95) and Norway (144).

[superyob]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'd say Romulus is trying to say if you die 'with' covid 19, rather than 'from' covid 19 then your death shouldn't be included in the stats.

It's just being pedantic in my view.

How does one tell the difference? For example, if a person has underlying conditions, exacerbated by an infection of corona, what killed them? As opposed to someone who died from just the virus...

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by russellw

Sweden is continuing to trend downward for new cases but their mortality rate remains above 33 per 100k of total population - well above Finland (4.1) and Norway (3.9) but not as bad as Italy (47.7) or Belgium (66.6). Their case rate of 220.97/100k of total population is well below the USA (358), Italy (348) and Spain (528) but above the neighbouring Finland (95) and Norway (144).

Where is your data source for the US numbers?

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by cheap

Why, because it would open up yet another Trump Derangement Attack.

Instead, be cautious, quote the bigger number and once the dust has settled then re-adjust.

He ain’t that smart!....
He would be furiously tweeting that significantly lower number night and day if he thought it’d help his re-election hopes!

[CoupeKing]

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by superyob

How does one tell the difference? For example, if a person has underlying conditions, exacerbated by an infection of corona, what killed them? As opposed to someone who died from just the virus...

To take a non-CV example, Richard Wherrett was HIV positive for decades, but died of liver failure. He didn’t die of HIV or a directly related illness in that sense, although it’s possible the years of retroviral drugs damaged or compromised his liver. So although he tested positive to a pandemic virus, it was not the cause of his demise...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Speaking of COVID-19, has this reached any of Indigenous community? I wonder if they are very susceptible to this compared to the rest of us?

Is there any information about this at all?

In the USA it appears to heavily effect their African American population but I'm not sure if that's because of low socioeconomic group, underlying health issues and their terrible healthcare system.

Haven't heard about it reaching remote indigenious communities, but if it did they would be stuffed. From what I know they do not have immune systems that could deal with it, due to being so isolated from the rest of the world, and not having an immune system that has been developed over thousands of years like your typical european has. Introduce illnesses from the outside world and their immune responses wouldn't know what to do.

That is what I have heard anyway. Seems plausible.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So... Why wouldn’t Trump use the “conveniently LOWER” number???

Classic sales tactics - under promise and over deliver.

Trump - We're expecting 70,000 dead

45,000 people die

Trump - Under my outstanding management of this crisis, and I'm the best manager at managing pandemics, I managed pandemics all the time, we managed to save an extra 25,000 American lives!

Trump Twitter -

25,000 AMERICAN LIVES!

[russellw]

Brazil.

Brazil has a number of countries that share borders with it so I've selected the largest of those as a comparison: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela.

Of those; it has the highest CMR of 6.92% which is still slightly below the global average of 7.05% but well above some of those neighbouring countries and above the 5.07% for the continent.



In terms of cases per 100k of total population (as opposed to the adult population we normally look at), Brazil (49) is well behind Peru which has 143 cases/100k but ahead of all the rest by a significant margin, however, it's not far from the global average which is 43.6 and it's actually below that of the continent which is 52.3.



In terms of deaths per 100k of total population, Brazil (3.4) is second only to Peru which has 4.03 cases/100k but ahead of all the rest by a significant margin as they are all below 1 - the global average is a fraction over 3.0 so there's not a lot of difference.



In fairness, there is a wide spread between the amount of testing being done. Peru has tested 1169/100k people and Venezuela 1698/100k while Brazil has only tested 159/100k.

The daily case trends show Brazil, Colombia and Argentina trending downwards while Peru and Bolivia are trending upward.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Speaking of COVID-19, has this reached any of Indigenous community? I wonder if they are very susceptible to this compared to the rest of us?

Is there any information about this at all?

In the USA it appears to heavily effect their African American population but I'm not sure if that's because of low socioeconomic group, underlying health issues and their terrible healthcare system.

I haven't done a proper analysis but my eyeball average says it's not race specific. If you look at rates my race across the world there are no standouts IMO. Other people have been speculating on this since the start. To clarify:

If you look at middle class populations of, for example, African descent, their infection and death rates mirror other populations of similar economic in that jurisdiction, Same goes for asian, working class etc.

It LOOKS to me (again no extensive analysis) like the biggest risk factor is geography/jurisdiction, population density, cultural factors like socialization and touching. The virus seems to be highly contagious with a specific transmission mechanism, so the big issue is the initial exposure. In some places you are much more likely to be exposed.

Once you are infected then the stated health aspects seem to drive outcomes. Basically some types of people are less likely to develop severe symptoms and need hospitalisation and die. This seems overwhelmingly to be driven by good/bad health.

The over representation of AAs in the USA seems driven by more exposure, hence higher infection rate, and soc/ec factors driving lower health resulting in more severe outcomes.

I haven't worded some of that well, sorry. It probably ain't genetics (eugenics?)...how about that.

I've been pretty frazzled this last week or so but things seem to be calming down. If I can find a comprehensive data set and a little time I'll build a spreadsheet and do some graphs of individual US states and EU countries. It will be useful to quash the media hype about how terribly the USA is doing but also may prove interesting in determining driving factors if we look at the different societies and policies.

I am a little scared though ATM at how well it's tracking 1918, if that continues September and on is going to be a deeply unhappy time. It's like the virus is conning us into complacency getting ready for it's main assault...

[CoupeKing]

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by russellw

[B]Brazil.

In fairness, there is a wide spread between the amount of testing being done. Peru has tested 1169/100k people and Venezuela 1698/100k while Brazil has only tested 159/100k.

Looking at that I would say that's your CMR discrepancy. If they are doing fewer tests then they are being aimed at the most likely positives, they probably have a much higher un-diagnosed case rate.

Obviously there is variance but it isn't huge. Are Brazil doing anything particularly different to the other SA juristictions ? (I don't read all of every post, I switch off when I see too much conspiricy/politics)

[zipping]

17% of employee's at Missouri meat processing plant test positive - all asymptomatic

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/04/u...uri/index.html

The French confirm their first case was Dec 27th

"He was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket.

"He was amazed, he didn't understand how he had been infected. We put the puzzle together and he had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife."

The man's wife worked alongside a Sushi stand, close to colleagues of Chinese origin, Cohen said. It was not clear whether those colleagues had travelled to China, and the local health authority should investigate, he said.

"We're wondering whether she was asymptomatic," he said.

"He may be the 'patient zero', but perhaps there are others in other regions. All the negative PCRs for pneumonia must be tested again. The virus was probably circulating (then)," he said.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020...us-france.html

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Sneaky sneaky! It shows you with a little bit of marketing you can go a long way, Like the former 'sex party' in VIC becoming Fiona Patten's 'Reason Party' - quite good policies by the way.

Though I see they merged with the Australian Cyclists Party and im feeling voters remorse.

So the Sex party merged with the cyclist party...makes sense, an easy transition if they just took the seat off..

[russellw]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

Obviously there is variance but it isn't huge. Are Brazil doing anything particularly different to the other SA jurisdictions ? (I don't read all of every post, I switch off when I see too much conspiricy/politics)

Brazil have taken a fairly laid back approach and the President has been under fire for being a little less than responsive to the crisis. He hasn't improved that by sacking the Health minister with whom he disagreed on how to deal with it. His push has been for business as usual whereas the health minister and many of the regional governments have been trying to implement even partial lockdowns. His replacement has already vowed to tow the Presidential line so there's no chance of getting a handle on it.

The modelling that has been done so far indicates that they could be in a world of hurt over the next few months but they will instead probably serve as a better litmus test for herd immunity.

[guzzis3]

Looks like they are starting to do racial analysis in the USA:

https://covidtracking.com/race

I'm going to use their dataset to map state by state history for the USA. I'll see if I can find an equivalent EU dataset...

Regarding Brazil, oh yes I think I recall that. Ok keep watching it then I guess.

My reason for looking properly at teh USA and the EU is to counter the hype and misinformation in the media and bought into by the anti Trumpers... This is too serious to get distracted by the irrelevant but some people are so determined to vent their hate it overwhelms all reason... Trump is Trump, but Trump doesn't matter. Finding the best way forwards is what matters...

[superyob]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

So the Sex party merged with the cyclist party...makes sense, an easy transition if they just took the seat off..

Stop saying words! Oh the images I don't need! Oooooohh I feel faint.

You started this Franco...

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by russellw

Sweden is continuing to trend downward for new cases but their mortality rate remains above 33 per 100k of total population - well above Finland (4.1) and Norway (3.9) but not as bad as Italy (47.7) or Belgium (66.6). Their case rate of 220.97/100k of total population is well below the USA (358), Italy (348) and Spain (528) but above the neighbouring Finland (95) and Norway (144).

Did I read recently that Sweden was a country that didn't impose any social distancing measures and the country had a 'business as usual' approach the entire time?

[CoupeKing]

I did read once that for every ten shipping containers that would enter America from China only one would go back with American products.

Lets see if that changes:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_ap...7851.html?v=ul

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Did I read recently that Sweden was a country that didn't impose any social distancing measures and the country had a 'business as usual' approach the entire time?

Sigh, read back, it's been covered several times. Limited lockdown aimed at the vulnerable, everyone else carry on as usual. Approach based on psychology more so than epidemiology.

[Romulus]

[Romulus]

No wonder the elderly locked up in nursing homes are dropping dead like flies. They're likely completely deficient in Vitamin D.

Who was it that said vitamins were a waste of money and wouldn't help?

[EgoFG]

[QUOTE=russellw;6435940]I can answer that one although the population base is actually quite different at 12.8M (Penn) v 21.9M (Florida).

Florida has ~36,000 cases while Pennsylvania has 52,000 and the latter has had 1,500 more deaths. Despite Florida having more high risk people, the CMR is actually lower than Penn at 3.82% compared to 5.43%.

Because of the disparate populations only the number per 100k figures actually matter. Penn has 405 cases / 100k compared to Florida with 164 and Penn also has 22 deaths per 100k compared to Florida with 6.27.

.../QUOTE]


Thanks


I was wanting to compare the US states with nearest: 1st - Population Density, 2nd Population count......Where one followed almost a Sweden style, whereas to other was typical US lockdown.


Aside form the difference in approach, it should be noted that Florida is noticeably warmer than Penn.


It *may* show the wisdom is looser controls on non-atrisk, but rather focussing effort on atrisk.